Private Capital Markets: Is Now the Time to Sell?
The private capital markets are experiencing strong transaction activity, favorable valuations, and significant demand for quality middle market companies. For business owners considering an exit, current conditions deserve careful attention. Robert T. Slee, an investment banker and influential author, examines private market cycles in Private Capital Markets: Valuation, Capitalization, and Transfer of Private Business Interests. Slee’s research suggests that U.S. private markets operate within approximately ten-year transfer cycles.
According to this framework, the market currently favors sellers. Strong earnings, available financing, and significant buyer demand continue to support attractive valuations for quality businesses. However, favorable market conditions rarely continue indefinitely. Slee’s market-cycle analysis suggests this seller’s market may begin weakening toward the end of 2017. Thereafter, the market could enter a period of uncertainty through approximately 2020. The framework anticipates a buyer’s market following that neutral period. Under this scenario, weaker conditions could continue through approximately 2023 before the cycle begins strengthening again.
Meanwhile, several factors continue supporting today’s active M&A environment.
Private equity groups maintain substantial capital (“dry powder”) available for acquisitions and continue pursuing quality companies. In particular, they seek businesses with sustainable cash flows, strong management teams, defensible market positions, and meaningful growth opportunities. At the same time, strategic buyers continue using acquisitions to supplement organic growth. Acquisitions may provide immediate access to customers, geographic markets, products, technologies, employees, and other strategic capabilities. Demographic trends create another important consideration within the private capital markets. A significant population of middle market business owners are approaching traditional retirement age. Consequently, more owners may pursue liquidity and succession strategies during the coming years.
An increasing supply of businesses for sale could eventually affect market dynamics. More sellers competing for buyer attention may place pressure on valuations, particularly if economic conditions or financing markets weaken. For business owners, these trends reinforce the importance of early exit planning. Preparing a company for sale may require several years of deliberate work. Owners should strengthen earnings, develop management, diversify customers, improve financial reporting, and address identifiable business risks. They should also establish realistic valuation expectations and clearly define their personal and financial objectives.
No business owner can perfectly predict the next market cycle. Nevertheless, understanding conditions within the private capital markets will help owners make informed decisions about timing. For owners considering an exit within the next several years, 2016 provides an important opportunity to evaluate their alternatives. Early preparation creates flexibility and positions owners to act while market conditions remain favorable. Whether it’s selling to a private equity group, a strategic, or watching your “baby” flourish, Allston Advisory Group has the experience to assist you with the desired transaction for your business.
