Using Rules of Thumb as a Business Valuation Starting Point

Business owners frequently use industry rules of thumb to estimate what their companies might be worth. These formulas offer a quick and convenient reference point. However, business valuation rules of thumb should serve as a starting point rather than a valuation conclusion. Most rules rely on a multiple applied to either revenue or earnings. Earnings measures may include EBITDA, SDE, cash flow, or another industry-specific measure.

Understanding What the Multiple Represents

A rule of thumb reflects observed relationships within a particular industry or market segment. For example, an industry might commonly reference a percentage of annual revenue. Another industry might focus primarily on a multiple of earnings.

At first glance, these formulas appear straightforward. Two companies with identical revenue, however, may have substantially different values. Profitability, growth, customer concentration, management depth, recurring revenue, and competitive position can distinguish one company from another. Company size, geography, capital requirements, and industry conditions may also affect value.

Historical Industry Benchmarks

In the prior year 2010, Business Valuation Resources (BVR) provided revenue-based rules of thumb for several major industry groups. The reported multiples for the period 2008 through 2010 included:

Industry                         2008             2009            2010

Construction                0.39x              0.40x             0.35x

Manufacturing            0.53x               0.61x             0.52x

Transportation            0.69x               0.43x            0.55x

Wholesale Trade         0.46x               0.45x            0.52x

Retail Trade                 0.36x               0.33x            0.34x

Services                         0.56x               0.53x            0.56x

These historical figures illustrate how broad industry benchmarks can change as market conditions change. The variation also reinforces the limitations of relying on a single rule of thumb. Across this period, transaction activity and overall private company valuations were affected by the financial crisis and constrained credit markets. BVR reported fewer private company transactions during 2009 than 2008. Its broader transaction data also showed declining net sales multiples during that period.

However, industry averages cannot account for meaningful differences between individual businesses. Profitability, growth, customer concentration, management depth, and other characteristics may produce substantially different values.

Understand the Transaction Assumptions

Owners must also understand exactly what a particular rule of thumb measures. A multiple does not automatically determine which assets and liabilities transfer to a buyer. Cash, debt, working capital, real estate, and other items depend on the transaction structure. Accordingly, applying a multiple without understanding its underlying assumptions may produce a misleading estimate.

Move Beyond the Rule of Thumb

An experienced valuation professional can analyze the company’s specific financial performance, risks, assets, and market characteristics. An M&A advisor may then evaluate how prospective buyers may view those characteristics during a sale process. Business valuation rules of thumb may provide a useful perspective. However, they cannot replace company-specific analysis or determine what qualified buyers may actually pay.

Rules of thumb provide a reference point. A properly developed valuation provides context, and the marketplace determines the transaction price.